Minter economics model

Does minting (M× MMT, force-listed as a ladder that sells above spot) beat just buying MMT? Slide the knobs. Everything is in stock terms; “multiple” = money-on-money vs a $1 buy-and-hold.

Multiplier M10×

Ladder top (MMT move to full fill)5×

Ladder top drives M as √top (constant edge)

Reroll → locked LP50%

Extract fee (protocol cut)20%

Proceeds split: 50 reroll / 40 minter / 10 fee

Locked-LP fee APR20%

Fee horizon1 yr

Minter share of LP fees80%

Break-even M (upfront)5.59×

Break-even M (with fees)4.66×

At M=10, beats holding up to10.73×

MMT move kMinter ×Hold ×Verdict

1.25×1.021.25hold wins

1.50×1.951.50mint wins

5.00×10.735.00mint wins

7.50×10.737.50mint wins

12.50×10.7312.50hold wins

Minting is a leveraged directional bet: on small moves (or if MMT never rises) the minter can lose vs holding, because most of the minted MMT hasn’t sold. Buy-and-hold always wins on extreme moonshots (past the ceiling) since the minter sold on the way up. Same math as model/economics.py.